Subj: Fw: [tmg_mars] Digest Number 57
Date: 7/10/00 9:47:02 AM Pacific Daylight Time

KENT,
A FOLLOW UP ON WHAT I SENT YOU THE OTHER DAY.
SAUNDRA

----- Original Message -----
From:
To:
Sent: Monday, July 10, 2000 10:09 AM
Subject: [tmg_mars] Digest Number 57


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> There are 2 messages in this issue.
>
> Topics in this digest:
>
> 1. Phobos towards Earth, a preliminary calculation
> From: "Jacco van der Worp"
> 2. Prototype Martian Home
> From: "Billie Brinkley"
>
>
> ________________________________________________________________________
> ________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 1
> Date: Sun, 09 Jul 2000 09:27:24 -0000
> From: "Jacco van der Worp"
> Subject: Phobos towards Earth, a preliminary calculation
>
> HI GUYS, THIS IS INTERESTING STUFF. IF YOU TWO CAN PULL IT TOGETHER
> IN A STORY (AND IN LAYMAN'S TERMS) I'LL PUBLISH IT ON YOWUSA.COM AS PART
OF
> A GENERAL PROPHECY ANALYSIS STORY. A KIND OF WHAT IF THING.
>
> MARSHALL
>
> I noticed a few flaws in the article below when I first read it
> yesterday. I will indicate just how far I think it goes and where it
> goes 'wrong'
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Mail List Administrator
> To: ; ;
>
> Sent: Sunday, July 09, 2000 6:57 AM
> Subject: [tmg_blackbox] Phobos
>
>
> > Hi All:
> >
> > This was posted on the Starweb SIG. Thought it might be of
> interest to
> you.
> >
> > Marshall
> >
> > OK I would like any help I can get with these number.
> > I am only human and make mistakes.
> >
> > If we put earth at 0 degrees with the sun being the
> center
> on
> > June 5,
> > 2000.
> > Then Mars would be 194 degrees going counter clock
> wise.
> > This puts Earth somewhere around 2.54 AU from Mars.
> > AU=92 Million Miles
> > ccw=counter clock wise cw=clock wise
> > Phobos orbit mars at around 4770 mph cw.
> > 76P has a elliptical orbit around the sun at 26600
> mph. at
> > 30.5 deg
> > angle ccw.
>
> So far so good.
>
> > If 76P hit Phobos then the fastest it can be coming
> to earth
> is
> > around 26000 mph.
>
> Why this? Where is this number coming from? Earth and Mars both
> rotate ccw
> when seen from above the ecliptical plane. Earth is overtaking Mars
> slowly
> therefore, because in a smaller orbit. To my knowledge, correct me if
> I'm
> wrong, Phobos was a bit of an odd moon, because it was the only moon
> in the
> solar system with a cw orbit, which has been assumed here also.
>
> What has been assumed here, an elastic collision? In that case, what
> are the
> masses of the comet and the moon? Only then can we know their
> velocities
> before and after. I seriously doubt though if such a collision would
> be
> elastic. In that case there would be no telling at all of the speeds
> afterwards.
>
>
> > At that speed the earliest Phobos can hit Earth is
> Nov. 12,
> 2000.
> >
>
> That is, if you assume the moon to make a perpendicular descent down
> from
> Mars' orbit towards the Sun. Well, that won't happen. In such a case
> by the
> way, a free fall into the Sun, it will be accelerated so
> tremendously, that
> the date of Nov 12 to cross Earth's orbit would probably be too late.
> No, the only plausible way would be that the comet destabilized the
> orbit of
> the moon so badly, that Mars' gravity will catapult it away after a
> few more
> rounds and haul it away, that would preferrably be towards the front
> inner
> side of Mars' orbit. (in a descending spiral towards the Sun, passing
> Earth's orbit somewhere around where we are between now and three
> months.)
> And the $64,000 question now is, what will the speed of the moon
> coming down
> have become. I'd say a LOT more than 26,000 miles an hour (that is
> about the
> escape velocity from Earth), my estimate would be around 40,000-
> 45,000 miles
> an hour (=17.7-20 km/s, which is a more realistic impact speed) by
> the time
> it reaches Earth.
> A *rough* calculation would then be:
>
> It descends from 1.54 AU to 1 AU. In doing that, it rotates about 270
> degrees around the Sun
> I will assume that the distance to the Sun decreases constantly. And
> I will
> have to assume for now (otherwise the calculation will become too
> hard) that
> the speed along the trajectory will not change or increase linearly.
>
> OK, figures now:
>
> Earth is at 1 AU = 1.5 E 8 km from the Sun, Mars is at 1.54 AU = 2.31
> e 8 km
> from the Sun.
> One Earth orbit is 2* pi * 1.5 E 8 = 9.42 E 8 km. One Martian orbit
> this way
> becomes.1.45 E 9 km.
> The average distance would then be 1.905 E 9 km from the Sun, making
> the
> orbit path for that distance (we can do so, twice as far out is twice
> as
> long an orbit path !) 1.20 E 9 km.
>
> 270 degrees is three-quarters of that, would make it 9 E 8 km to
> travel to
> reach Earths orbit. This is 2.36 times the direct distance Earth-Mars
> in
> opposition as it is now! Remember, Phobos would come down on us along
> the
> far side of the Sun, because of the trajectory of 76P.
>
> The distance to travel in three months would have to be 9 E 8 km.
> Three months is 91 days, times 24 hours, equals 2184 hours.
> 9 E 8 / 2184 makes 412088 kilometres an hour, is 114.5 km a second
> AVERAGE
> speed !! No way, not even with propulsion..
> So either we need a different trajectory or a longer period..
>
> The least possible distance for the moon to travel to us in three
> months
> would be some 3.0 AU ( a sharp hyperbola around the Sun, the minimal
> distance is 2.54 AU, but that would plunge it into the Sun, end of
> problem,
> so let's assume half a AU more and have it go just inside Mercury's
> orbit,
> any closer would disintegrate it completely.)
> 3.0 AU is 4.5 E 8 km to travel in 2184 hours, is still 206043 km an
> hour or
> 57 km/s *on average*. It starts at 26000 - 5000 = 21000 mph is 33600
> km an
> hour. So the speed would start at 33600 an hour, and average over
> 206000 an
> hour, with a peak just inside Mercury's orbit.
>
>
>
> 57 km/h is a speed you normally see meteorites impact in when they
> collide
> head on with Earth, so the figure isn't all that wild.
> But this one would come from behind, or left behind when you stand on
> top of
> the North pole and keep the Sun at your left hand.
> We need to take Earth's velocity into account for a collision speed
> estimate.
> Earth moves, based upon the values used above, with 107589 km/h along
> its
> orbit, is 29.9 km/s
>
> We now have two vectors.
> I need your imagination here. The impact angle will be *from* around
> ten
> degrees to our left back, behind our left hand (again, standing on
> NP). Now
> we'll have to do vectorial subtraction (!) of the Earth motion vector
> from
> the outbound impact trajectory of Phobos.
> Why? Well, because the moon is coming from left behind, the effective
> speed
> will be lessened somewhat by our own motion.
>
> Let's calculate the speed of impact then. It comes from left behind
> (10
> deg). Tangential speed is then (cosine 80) * 57 is 9.9 km/s and
> radial is 56
> km/s. So we would slam into it. Tangential speed resulting is 20 km/s,
> radial 56 km/s, real speed (vectorial speed) is then (Pythagoras) the
> square
> root of the sum of the squares of 56 and 20 is 59.5 km/s from an
> angle of 70
> degrees left (standing on NP, looking ahead along Earth trajectory).
>
> Any other scenario will take much longer, but results in a lower
> speed of
> impact.
>
> Doomsday scenario if you ask me.
>
> Just how big is Phobos anyway?
>
> Jacco
>
>
> > I was wondering since the impact may not be until
> November.
> Then
> > maybe this quatrain is stating that we will see the
> king of
> > terror in
> > the seventh month. As for the rest of the quatrain I
> have no
> > idea,
> > and I am open to any suggestions.
> >
> > (Nostradamus 10:72
> >
> > The year 1999 and seven months
> > From the skies will come the great king of terror
> > To raise again the great King of the Jacquarie
> > Before and after Mars to reign by happiness)
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ________________________________________________________________________
> ________________________________________________________________________
>
> Message: 2
> Date: Sun, 09 Jul 2000 20:51:20 -0600
> From: "Billie Brinkley"
> Subject: Prototype Martian Home
>
> Prototype Martian Home
>
http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/marshab_paradrop_000707.ht
> ml
>