Subj: "Crazy Ivan"
Date: 8/20/00 11:32:28 AM Pacific Daylight Time

Hello,
Sunk by a "Crazy Ivan" he speculates; more likely Rotten Pork. Although
the anti-submarine detection method is a romantic notion that is
scheduled to appear on TBS once again today in the movie HUNT FOR RED
OCTOBER, the more likely source of the explosions was a badly designed,
but less expensive torpedo forced into the Russian submarine navy by a
pork-packing powerful Politburo member with an underused weapon's plant
in his military district. Resorting to a technology that had been
abandonded in the 1980's because of the associated safety hazards, the
Russian Oscar II-class submarines were supplied liquid-fueled torpedos
instead of the much safer and more reliable silver battery powered
model. After this nuclear warhead capable torpedo is loaded for launch
and fired it creates a high pressure gas bubble in the tube that ejects
it. (A battery powered torpedo swims out.) The torpedo then surfaces
and its rocket motor carries the torpedo downrange until it reenters the
water and then performs as a tropedo. It can carry a conventional or
500kt nuclear warhead.
The KURSK's periscopes and radio masts are all extended indicating
it was at periscope depth when the accident occured. A "Crazy Ivan", or
clearing the baffles as the manuever is intended to do, is usually
performed prior to coming to periscope depth. More likely the torpedo
jammed in its tube and the first explosion was the steam generator in
the torpedo lighting off in launch sequence when it jammed in the tube.
The torpedo technicians would have attempted to unjam it but the rocket
motors probably fired and exhausted into the torpedo compartment. The
torpedo compartment water tight door would have been closed during this
evolution so all the exhaust would have concentrated in the torpdo
compartment. About 2 min. 15 secs. later either the torpedo jammed in
the tube, or another torpedo in the compartment exploded. During that 2
min. 15 sec. the control room personnel would have tried to help "poop"
the torpedo out of the tube by putting the sub in a down angle
attempting a gravity assist, but it wouldn't have been too long (about 2
min 15 ses.) before the bow struck bottom with enough force to trigger
the torpedo in the tube if the fire in the compatment wasn't the source.

Now for a final bit of speculation: The refusal to allow foreign
assistance untill all the crew was obviously dead has brought severe and
proper outrage in Russia and internationally. Who might have been
onboard, and why were two added to the list after some time? Is it
possible two high ranking Chinese military observers were onboard to
witness the excersise with a weapons system they are interested in
purchasing in China's ongoing desire to repatriate Taiwan? If so, Putin
lost a lot more than just one submarine and crew. The coming shakeup
in Russia's military and poltical power structure will certainly be far
reaching. Also, watch for fundamentalist driven terrorism to increase
and the FSB and other powerful private security forces to thrust
themselves more forcefully into Russian society. --- Larry ---


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